Long story short, JavaFX is Sun’s attempt to compete with technologies like Microsoft Silverlight and Adobe Flash/Flex/Air by finally bringing Java’s UI capabilities into the 21st century. It’s great in theory, it’s great for the Java world in general, but I don’t think it’s going to be so great in practice.

The reason I’m saying this is because JavaFX simply doesn’t have a place on the modern map of computing. I mean, let’s look at the facts:

• Flash clearly dominates the web. The ubiquity and maturity of Flash gives developers virtually no reason to switch, especially when considering that most users don’t even know what Java is, let alone have it installed on their computers.
• On the desktop side of things, Air is pretty cool, however technologies from Microsoft (like WPF and Silverlight) have a greater chance of catching on. Sun is left way behind because of the large downloads and long start up times usually associated with Java. Remember, we’re talking mainstream users here.
• Great UIs need great visuals, and these in turn need powerful image processing tools. Adobe has time proven software under it’s belt, like Flash, Illustrator and Photoshop. Microsoft is making an effort to catch up (though it’s arguable how successful this effort will be). Sun has nothing. And regardless of what you’ll say, there will always be more “cooperation” between Photoshop/Illustrator and Flash than there will be between Photoshop/Illustrator and JavaFX.
• Consoles and other similar devices have built-in web browsers. These web browsers usually run Flash. And I don’t think they’re going to switch to Java anytime soon.
• The only real chance JavaFX has is in the mobile world, and Sun knows it. In fact, Sun says JavaFX will be available on mobile devices starting sometime in 2009. However, they don’t specify on what class of devices JavaFX will run. Unless they somehow manage to get it running properly on mainstream devices, they’re ship is sunk. Let’s face it, if you’re going for a high-end device, you might as well use it’s native API. Or go for Flash. Speaking of Flash, my old Nokia E50 can happily run FlashLite content right now.
• Serious (read: “enterprise”) users don’t need JavaFX. At all.

Bottom line, unless Sun somehow manages to pull a magic rabbit out of a magic hat, I simply don’t see how they can make JavaFX really catch on. I admit I like the idea of JavaFX, but something tells me I’m not going to like the reality of it.